chainlink predictionTokenomics of Chainlink ~ Price Prediction Stockbrokers View

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hi this is the tower economist im a former stock broker for the city of london and im here to talk to you about the fundamentals or the cryptomentals of the projects you love and warn you about the ones that you probably shouldnt simply put is that coin really worth it so lets talk crypto rentals and find out were going to be looking at this episode this is the tow economist hey welcome to the tow economist today were going to talk to you about one of the most boring companies in the top 20 by market cap crypto projects they are a future potential giant or not but they could be a competition to some of the major clearinghouses settlement services in finance in the bond market in a trillion dollar market around the world and that is chain link so stick around were going to have a look at that but first give it a massage of the like button and dont forget to uh the subscribe button so this is actually the second version of me doing this video i cant catch a break doorbell keeps going someone keeps coming in or as i did the first time around i actually did this particular video for chain link uh hence the different t-shirt um but um i recorded double audio so um this time it hopefully should work fine and lets talk about chain link now full disclosure ive got chain link i like chain link as a boring project but if you are expecting me to give you some crazy moonshot price now or tell you that chain link is fundamentally undervalued and its really really cheap but youve got to get it now youre going to be disappointed but on the flip side um if youve got a slightly longer term horizon you dont care about the technical analysis and the charts and all that nonsense and you actually want to look at a project on its fundamentals i think you still probably really enjoy the general findings of this video so my background as i said the beginning is i used to be a stock broker long since lapse no longer a stock broker no longer working that sector but i was an investment advisor and the principles that we used to apply when it came to identifying a stock whether it was a growth stock small cap big company blue chip uh mid cap um different different sizes generally still the same overarching thoughts now sometimes you would find a value proposition you might find a company that you that you know the share price has been has been tanked down because of some random pandemic um or you know it may be um you know a fast growing company so were trying to apply the same principles to some of these crypto projects and see whether or not they stack up so im going to show you the can slim chart in a second to give you a reminder of what that is if you want to see the can slim chart ive actually put together a little presentation on on um the canceling investment strategy approach its in a free pdf link in the description uh its not mine i didnt come up with it a famous investor come up with it called benjamin graham um so william oneill benjamin graham was a different one and im not gonna im not gonna go back over and change that ive done this video too many times and each time theres a problem but anyway so william oneill famous investor talks about the can slam approach i take the canslim approach and work a few additional tweaks to it uh to allow us to have a look at different projects and understand if they are uh have investable merits so um im going to show you the chart now so this is the can slim chart it stands for well this stands for seven different things there are some additional elements to it but i would add but in a nutshell were going to take a look at the earnings were going to take a look at whether or not theyve got new products or theyve got network effects supply and demand liquidity of the share price or the token price supply demand of their of their services i suppose are they a leader or are they a laggard that means are they big in the game or are they a small fish do they have any institutional sponsorship institutional investment so do big organizations get involved and end market direction thats thats the small element of im not even trading a technical analysis but more just an indication of where things are going with the with the current price of of uh chain link in this particular case and it actually highlights how much your percentage should really be applied in long-term investment strategies to the technical side of things so there you go thats cancelling lets jump back on so who are chain link this is cheneys website chain link provide an oracle service that means they essentially provide a verified data service so if you and i have a bet and my bet is by the end of the day the temperature is going to be 25 degrees celsius and you say no its not we need that third party to release the money in either way depending on the result and its not really trusted because i could trust it more you might trust it less or whatever it just needs to be verified hence the whole dont trust verified so thats what we have with oracle they are an oracle we have chain link their oracle servers they are head and shoulders above anyone else they are the leader in the market there are some new oracle services coming through on other layer one protocols like cardano has charlie c3 who i actually happen to have a very small investment in because its kind of a hedge against this one not being the big player but thats what they do its pretty unsexy but pretty important and they provide data feed pairs for a number of different trading platforms you can see some of them here synthetics the btc price um and some of the platforms that they provide it through thats a quick look here they provide it through uh theyve got partnerships signed up with google lets say sandbags if weve all heard of sandbank big ones in the game sound bank uh lets see what they got i know they got google signed up which is pretty cool uh theyve got tons you know theyre with liquity sushi swap theyre linked in with some of the biggest defy names so you know the d5 market goes up they do well as well for those of you whove got a punt on pond dx there you go um pancakes what theyve got um these guys run some of the nodes so some of the different companies that make money by actually hosting the nodes that provide the data feed services that tells us no we test okay anyway so um t-mobile systems random provide notes for that so pretty big perpetual purp i know that gets mentioned a lot on uh token what else weve got e s name services um loop brings synthetics all made its the biggest names in block phone the biggest names in device so they are pretty close to their markets with d5 goes up in any big um kind of stretch of the imagination if you know add a zero to d5 youre probably gonna add a zero to chain nick as well now um what we want to look at is we want to go through the can slim strategy and well have a look really and see how chain link fits within those so youve got a very brief understanding now what it is they do its like its not sexy theyre not providing decentralized music services theyre not providing decentralized social media theyre providing a decentralized data feed um which is kind of cool sometimes some of the least sexy industries or the developments isnt it where theres much theres money as they say so thats what changing do so how do they stack up when it comes to earnings well what we can do is we can get an indication of where their current earnings are so lets have a look at the last or this current quarter and what theyre currently doing so lets go to chain market which is pretty useful for this respect and theyre doing about three and a half thousand daily transactions now i dont that doesnt mean transactions such as uh you and i trading and buying on the market is to do with their providing three and a half thousand data feeds now one of those data feeds those api transactions may actually cover a basket of trades within it um but theyre early stage investors who framework ventures ill find you who put together a very interesting article about their investment in in shaming theyre down here theyre a san francisco silicon valley based uh early stage investor in in cryptocurrencies you can check them out just google framework underscore v and they talk about their their investment thesis and why they think chanying can perform well and where theyve got to press theyve got a price target they had on it i think i think it eclipsed it now but one of the justifications is based on number of transactions it can do in the long term so for now its not doing no massive numbers three and a half thousand daily data feed transactions lets go back to it here lost where i am where the hell am i here we are um sorry about this okay i lost a sea of data give me the data come on its link pool isnt it its here where are we go away oh ive lost it oh yeah here we go changing metrics look different yeah favicons i cant work out so into the shave and my itchy mustache so weve got here last uh last 24 hours weve got three and a half thousand daily transactions thats transactions thats use of data feeds that can be an aggregated number of different uh different data feeds im just gonna grab my coffee last seven days they generated 1.4 million dollars worth of rewards as i guess the company that has a valuation of 10 and a half billion market cap total diluted is 24 billion we can do this one we can do this one either way lets put some numbers in there okay so lets go back to the metrics 1.4 million dollars in the last seven days so lets just divide that by seven wheres my calculator gone cant see my calculator okay right one four lets do divided by seven okay its 200 000 rewards generated per day on average were going to times that by 365 to give us an indication that that means theyre making on average 73 million in rewards earnings per annum based on the current market cap thats a pretty top evaluation but ive got a little chart ive been working on a little spreadsheet so lets bang in 73 million 73 million okay right so what ive done here this is this is linked by this is market cap total number tokens an issue ive gone straight for the billion not messed around pricey up at 25 why not thats the revenue this is just if the revenue went up 20 per annum 73 um which would be earnings per token of seven cents essentially against the current price of 25 thats a yield 0.29 or a price to earnings ratio of 342 its pretty toppy um traditional finance be looking at 14 to 31 but its a growth company okay so with this one we can we can accept that we can accept top evaluations this is what im saying if youre expecting me to suddenly go god its really cheap you know bear that in mind when you consider if you look at something like sushi swap and youve already got a really punchy yield even at these prices um i think sushi was even lower at the moment actually i think its something like oh i was like nine dollars and a half so its even lower uh but anyway so it it it is a strong high valuation at the moment thats we say you know not gonna theres no beach around the bush and 25 market cap is about 20 above the ball case um price prediction of framework ventures when they invested into chain link uh three four years ago my voice is going funny so yeah its above where they thought it was everything to get to and it hasnt yet started doing that that level of business yet um does that mean it cant go on further and go to the moon um what i wouldnt have bought into it if i did if i didnt think so and you wouldnt have institutional funds buying into it with 21 shares um a company called 21 shares exchange products so obviously people think it can go a lot further but i just want to say hey look right now annualized revenues are 73 million market cap fully diluted market is 25 billion thats thats an expensive valuation thats all im saying um but its you know its early doors so thats um this sort of thats what current is were looking at here but more importantly lets have lets have a look how theyre doing over the last 90 days so current earnings the c okay what we can see here is an upward trajectory theres been some bumps uh i know that theres been some days where its earned less rewards revenue but generally its an upward trajectory so the last 90 days weve gone from you know 25th of march 184 000 link uh rewards generated up to now 10th of june 1.4 million so its a hell of a client 1000x in terms of 1000x 1000 in terms of uh rewards generated so its definitely going in a very attractive curve the can slim strategy when it comes to investment was to look at 25 growth quarter on quarter well this is you know looking at a thousand percent so yeah it wins there so next up weve got annualized earnings now i dont have the exact figures or any of the figures for the last few years for chain link and the reality is is the use of chennai has gone up exponentially and there probably wasnt a great deal of use previous years so of course the use of chain link is going to be higher than the previous years so what i want to have a quick look at is one tell you what it means so annualized earnings is when you kind of work out roughly what the annual earnings or the annual profit making of the platform can be uh based on some shorter term numbers you might times them up by something um but also when you come to doing the counseling strategy youd be looking at how much they did this year on previous years and on the previous years and is there a significant jump is it three percent growth or is it 25 percent growth is it 300 growth or is it one percent growth how much of that growth is there there is also one aspect i want to quickly just cover which is what the realistic journey or the future could look like now framework ventures who are one of their early stage investors ive mentioned before in this video they have a base case that they believe or a ball case they believe the two different things the chain link could be looking at doing about 800 000 transactions per day in a sort of fully developed state and thats dealing with transactions that with the bond market tokenized securities things that can generate some real profit with that data feed if we look at what they are now per transaction per api transaction and then look at what would happen if you did 800 000 per day you actually generate a figure of and ive got it down here in my spreadsheet thats the wrong number thats actually half the number you generate a figure of 12 billion i dont know why i have to type it down the generation figure of 12 billion at the total addressable market full diluted market cap 25 um so 25 billion sorry with one billion tokens an issue if we look at their current market cap of 25 billion thats their fully diluted market cap with the price of 25 youd be looking at a well if it earning 12 billion per annum youll be looking at a company that essentially owns 50 yield its not going to happen so what happens is the yield falls as people chase that yield and therefore the token price goes up if we looked at a priced earnings of 12 which is incredibly incredibly conservative in a fully established fully developed financial business wed have a token price of 144 so as i said if you wanted me to tell you its going to be a thousand dollars youre not going to hear that but in return for the measured risk you take with chain link as in being the leader in the sector and being pretty boring and already starting to establish themselves player youre still looking at a price thats about six seven multiples on the current price thats pretty good particularly if you can get there in the next five to ten years you look at things like the s p 500 which generate an annualized return about eight percent over the last 70 years people wouldnt sniff at that now could you make bigger returns on shiba inu yeah im sure you could you can make bigger returns on any coin and come rock it on pawn rocket but the reality is would you want to hold your money in it for five years and would you put a significant enough sum in those ones that would warrant a much bigger return the kind of project you might put more money in is a project like chain link so what we can look at here is if we take a look at the price to earnings ratio and we call it 20 lets put a 20 in there a bit more realistic five percent yield again very very good sort of thing that shareholders that look for dividend returns would be looking for is a yield of 20 sorry a yield of 5 a p of 20 youll be looking at a token price of 240 if those things came to pass and that depends on the revenues being generated and as i will say at a later point my concern is the more it scales and the more the price goes up the more expensive chain becomes the chain has to lower the price it charges and if you lower the price you charge for something well then youre you know youre gonna gonna take a hit on you if apple in the morning woke up and said were gonna hear my house moving around upstairs if you couldnt ive done this video so many times now im just not gonna um theres a noise upstairs someones moving a bed thats whats happening um if in the morning apple woke up and put in the press if the morning apple woke up apples a company if apple announced one morning theyre going to slash the price of their iphone in half yes theyre going to see more units sold but theyre not going to suddenly see the their revenue double its just not realistic and so what happens is their share price may take a hit because people appreciate theyre going to start making less profit and youve got to bear that in mind as they scale there is a potential crunch with the price to use the service if you want the tokens to go up up and up up and up then consider how that makes a currently centralized business decide whether or not they use chaining and i think thats the real problem for the whole sector you know you get people go oh my project i really love its going to be currency and its going to be money its going to be using everything and its going to scale up so what it cant really be those things because if you hold a token to or you pay for a service you want you kind of want to hedge the cost of that service and thats where i think a lot of people are missing in this game when it comes to looking at fundamentals of business but you can hold a token and think its going to go up in value sure but i run a business this is just to do this as a bit of laugh and in my business i need to know how much my you know shopify plus is going to cost me every single month you know i dont want to be paying more money every single month well if you hold shopify tokens youll be fine i dont want to hold my money in shopify tokens i want to hold them in my normal currency whatever that currency happens to be so people arent thinking those things through but if the the cost to acquire a link is the same i mean theres this thats the floor in these numbers as well is you know when were considering youre using link to pay for the service if we consider youre paying in dollars for example i think thats the best way to look at it if youll consider youre paying in dollars and thats a dirty word then you would achieve at current prices about 12 billion revenue per annum for changing network based on that that ball case from framework ventures you can check it out on medium as i said before medium framework underscore v and that would potentially produce if a p of 20 a token price of 240 dollars theres no use or bus but if the pe was 20 and it was doing that level of revenue that would be the token price whether it happens or comes to pass its an entirely different thing so thats annual earnings okay so next time youve got a new product well the beauty of providing an oracle services as they take on new clients and those new clients they take on sushi or they take on um hedera hashgraph and new protocols and those protocols develop new products essentially chain link have got a new product theyve always got a new thing they can do because theyre providing constant services to new clients so thats quite cool network effects they are you know in terms of signing up clients they are the leader as well get to in the l stage and leader of lagard theyve got that network effect theyre growing uh and theyre across the cross chain compatible or theyre agnostic which means they arent relying on just ethereum doing well you know they can you know as i said theyve signed up with hedera hashgraph they signed up with other level one protocols which means if those ones grow then dandy okay s stands for supply and demand supply demand relates to uh the stock itself is is it liquid is it liquid you have a gamma squeeze um its pretty damn liquid the number of transactions per day on the actual token price lets have a quick look at this volume youre looking at last 24 hours about 1.8 billion 1.5 but 1.1 billion okay if you have a look at the trading volume over the last um historical data you can see that it hasnt very often been below 1 billion down there on the on may the 19th it was about 5 billion 5.2 billion by the 19th of debt crashed 5.2 billion of panics but thats a lot of its in the billions pretty much every single day sometimes multi billions it was a lot higher um march for every time people say selling may go away institutional funds go on holiday they take time off from the markets maybe people want to be outside i want to be outside that way um fixing my front wall today so but the key thing is there is supply so the share price or the token price isnt going to move wildly just because of one big dump in the market it does need a bit more than that um which gives you a bit more strength if you have to sell a position um a bit more confidence the price is a bit more stable more importantly it means people like it you know its doing a billion dollars of the trans off in our volume every single day people like it its on peoples radar big people are trading it thats good thats a bit of confidence and i think um when you look at the institutional aspect as well and it kind of plays into that too um the l aspect is leaders and laggards when it comes to leaders and laggards they are the leader bar none really um theres something much else to say really they are the leader that you are if you are investing in chain link you are investing in the best oracle in the in the ecosystem of crypto based on um signed up business and just reputation i suppose market cap they are the leader okay and thats opposed to betting on a really small one that could be small because its bad or it could be small because its brand new so theres always more of a gamble these are already established those networks are going to grow and help them grow even further i institutional so supply and demand aspect as well again whos investing in them theyve got a number of you can check them out on crunchbase actually theyve got a number of silicon valley investors one of the early investors in keek invest in chain link theyve got 21 shares which is a an institutional farm that invests in them greyscale has a fund in them so there is a number of large um institutional sponsor investors putting money into it chris look at the price of the east coast are they eight grey that is good gray seven grey sorry um because its a hundred sometimes ive really come down with arbitrary polygon but um they have big people in them big institutions are putting their money into them and if theyre putting their money into it the chances are theyre more likely to be right than you are not always but you know big money um and finally youve got market direction so this is the only aspect id ever look at um technical analysis where are things going and i guess the reason why this this forms part of the can slim strategy is if the markets tanking you can bomb dip or you could just wait for the market to run out of energy maybe get lower um for me i tend to dollar cost average or pound cost average i buy regularly every week so for example bitcoin i buy bitcoin every sunday every sunday lunchtime because its usually the best time to buy it i buy the same amount every single week because that means if it goes down i get more of my money it goes up i get bit less from my money but it means when things go down im happy too when it comes to market directions i dont like talking about technicals i would look at it as a as a business over the last um in the last few years wheres it going well over the last uh of the last one year for example you know thats a general trajectory and forget about the price in general just imagine this was sentiment general sentiment the general sentiment in the general awareness of chain link as a project has risen from this point last year where the price was four dollars to the point where its hit you know 46 and its 24 now so general sentiment has spiked massively the market direction is going up um i like it as i said if you wanted me to tell you that i think its incredibly undervalued right now i would be lying because i dont think it is you know its just my personal opinion i think i think its priced like a project that probably should generate more revenues but also i know that they are the market leader and there is value in the networks they built theres value in the brand they built thats worth a lot of money and i think theyre in a position where they actually can do some of these large volume businesses these large volume uh transactions on a day-to-day basis my only concern again is as volumes go up and the price goes up youve got this issue where the transactions become very expensive not the gas visa transactions so do does the price fall to accommodate a rise in the uh to accommodate new transactions and also if you think about it if youre using a centralized network um youre looking at it relative so relatively looking at it youre relatively speaking your own this is a really expensive service to use and its all very well someones saying well if you if you think about it in fiat terms it is yeah they are thinking about it in fiat times so this is one of those things where i think you know could i be wrong how could i be wrong and whats going to put people off didnt they bottomize money isnt it so thats just something to bear in mind but i think when you look at it you think if youre confident that those transactional volumes can continue to climb uh over the next five ten years well then you have an understanding and a benchmark to have a look at as to where things can go in terms of the price um if they get to the point where theyre doing 12 billion per annum phenomenal if theyre doing half that you know current price twenty four dollars you wouldnt sniff at that would you like i know we all want 10x but youve got to look at as well is with some of the mid caps there is an element of risk protection you know with chain link youre paying a premium for a project that um thats not right um how does my numbers work okay i need to fix my spreadsheet the others dont work so im just playing around there you go 40p 40. so just just because i got here okay but anyway so if we just went uh what youre looking at is youre looking at a project that has the um the downside protection from brand and project and awareness and integration and potential revenue in the fact that theyre a mid cap the upside is still going to be very strong if they do what they say theyre going to do is it going to be as big upside in the near term as some random micro cap probably not any project can go up shiva inu can come up safe moon can go up but it doesnt mean that necessarily a good project that youd hold five six seven years from now as always theres a really good quote and its we underestimate what we overestimate what we can do in the short term and we underestimate what can be achieved in the long term and i think that probably goes for many companies weve ever heard of amazon no one would have anticipated theyd become a trillion dollar company uh 20 years ago we massively over expected what would happen to them in the dot com era and we under anticipated what they could do in the long term googles the same so there you go thats my breakdown on chain link looking at the can slim strategy im gonna go outside and go and fix my wall um do i think its its a bit expensive now still even at these prices um long term id probably be id probably say no um but in the short term you know you may still see the market come off a bit its hard to know and im not here to give you professional advice on that all i wanted to show you was my personal thoughts on chain link if you liked it hit subscribe button if you want me to look at anything else do ask thanks for watching We got asked to take a look at the tokenomics of Chainlink and discuss price predictions in one of our recent videos, so here goes. Using the CANSLIM growth investment fundamental research methods, we ask if Chainlink is a good investment or not.None of this video is any more than our opinion and should not constitute sound financial advice If you want to check out the full CANSLIM investing guide there is a link here. Its free, no sign-up, no email, nothing, I just dont have a website with it on yet, so when I mention in this tokenomics of Chainlink video about it, its here: 2 things about Chainlink I cant remember if I mentioned: 1. I have concerns about the demand growth in Chainlink leading to inflation of cost to use the network and pricing out new entrants. The fix is to lower the price which reduces the potential earnings of the network. 2. I couldnt find easily much of the governance reward or node reward information. It shouldnt be that hard if a token is for investing too. *What does tokenomics of Chainlink mean?* For some, the discussion of tokenomics of Chainlink starts and finishes at talking about how many link tokens are in issue. Well, fundamental analysis of Chainlink is a bit more in depth than that. To us here, at the the Tokenomist, its about the investability structure of the cryptocurrency too. Was Chainlink made to be worth holding onto? And how does that change over time? These are the things we look at in this Chainlink price prediction video. *Do you make Chainlink Price Predictions?* Not as such, but we do take a look at future revenue potential and how that translates to token price with a range of P/E ratios. You may call it a Chainlink price prediction, we prefer to consider it modelling. *Where can I see the Chainlink Price Predictions?* 5:00 onwards *What sites do you use for Chainlink investment research?* As part of this tokenomics of Chainlink study we made use of the following sites - none of which we have any affiliation with: *What is your background to make Chainlink Tokenomics videos?* We may be a small channel and thats because its very early days, but as you can see from our low quality video editing, media is not our background. We have worked in regulated financial markets in the UK as investment advisors and while those qualifications do not cover crypto, and are now lapsed, they do give us some experience in being able to talk about what we used to look at, when picking equities for clients for a range of goals. If you want to chat to us, help us grow our Twitter: @RealTokenomist cryptocurrency VAPEANDJUICE,