chainlink coursChainlink: Timing entries into the market

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hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today were going to talk about chain link and its valuation against bitcoin ethereum and usd so if you guys like the content please subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the telegram channel in the description below thank you guys for helping me get to 70 000 subscribers lets keep on pushing upwards so on this channel we like to look at things a little bit of a different way um more so in terms of data science really analyzing historical patterns not assuming each time is different but that were going to have ultimately have more or less of the same and so that we can use these trends to ultimately increase our um whatever stack that may be and so for instance this chart is one weve shown before this is the link bitcoin chart the link bitcoin valuation the primary y-axis of course is a logarithmic scale versus time color coded by the link bitcoin risk metric right and weve looked at this extensively in the past um one of the one of the things about link is is that it has never experienced a bull market and as weve said before we do not know how it will perform in a bull market uh not only against usd but against bitcoin now during a bear market during the bitcoin bear market and the bitcoin accumulation phase link increased about two orders of magnitude on bitcoin however we do not know how link will fare when its going up against a bullish bitcoin and so far it has been losing value however its lost value since the peak that we had in the summer its more or less still on the same course that its always been on its just that it has bled down a little bit more this time against bitcoin than it historically has okay so were going to look at this chart but were going to pull the risk level out and put it on the secondary y-axis okay so thats what this chart is and you know weve talked about before how the the red region up here it tends to be you know a great selling opportunity of link back to bitcoin if you follow the premium list we do have the sale still going on check out that in the description below um that includes the risk metric stuff so we did have a sell up here back to bitcoin at around 150 000 satoshis and the nice thing is that we you know i have been buying link recently theres been three key times over the last few months that i bought it and well talk about that in a few minutes as well but you can see with respect to bitcoin which is not what i base my buys on i mean i do want it to be at least below 0.65 but theres the other metric the link usd risk metric that i that i use more so to time entries into link you can see it has come back down to a level it has not been at since 2018. so maybe the third quarter of 2018 was the last time the link risk against bitcoin went to this level to give you an idea of how bullish it has been for the over the last two years it has not been to this level in over two years okay so one of the nice things though is that we can look at this and say well it could come down right it could continue to come down against bitcoin this is always a possibility i mean back in the summer of 2018 it came down to around 0.3 or so so this is always a possibility however were getting into territory where when you look historically speaking there have not been that many opportunities to buy it at these risk levels against bitcoin it just simply has not existed for very long when it when it does come around maybe a few months here there but its been over two years now one thing that i have i dont know if ive showed this chart on the on the public channel of course its on the premium list um but its the link usd risk okay and this is ultimately what i need to see i need to see it below 0.5 for me to move into link okay oh so i want to see it below 0.5 and if its below 0.5 then i start buying if its above 0.5 then i dont buy and that does not it so it basically doesnt matter what the link bitcoin risk is if the link usd risk is not below 0.5 i generally just dont buy chain link um but when it gets to that level then its a key opportunity in my opinion to enter the market and i mean it can take a lot of patience especially when youre you know when youre just watching it go up but that was why we were we were making videos on chain links since 2019. you know back over here we were talking about chain link in preparation for this move um and so i dont know when the next move is going to be i mean if if its going to take as long as between this one and this one and this one this one it could be a while frankly speaking i dont think itll be nearly that long though considering that uh you know the it seems like it appears that uh things are or might be picking up soon if bitcoin can hold these levels but i just want people to be aware of this other risk metric that i mainly talk about on the premium list and if you if you take out the risk on and put it on the secondary y-axis you get the white line here this is where i buy so the green region is where i would personally buy link if its not in the green region i just simply dont buy it and i like to scale up my buys if it if it falls further and further down now weve actually this is our third time entering the 0.5 risk level so it happened over here when it went below eight dollars now the risk levels are dynamic they adjust over time so back in a few months ago we went to below eight dollars i picked up link there it happened again right here you might say well ben this is not below 0.5 risk well these are daily closes if if you actually look at um hourly candles you can see we did in fact go back below 0.5 risk and then we just hit it again yesterday or two days ago depending on on what time zone or whatever um but we hit it when it went below 11 44. so 1144 was the 0.5 risk model a couple days ago and at that risk level is where i i purchased more link now unfortunately um it seems like every time we hit the 0.5 risk level at least for the last few weeks we immediately bounce off of it and and um as much as i would like to to believe that the the 0.5 risk level will always find you know always lend itself as the the local bottom for link usd i simply also know thats not the case we in the future we will go back down to the 0.4 risk level we will go back down to the 0.3 risk level my point is that i simply do not buy it at all if its above 0.5 risk i would prefer to let someone else take that risk and to inflate the price so that if it does come back up into say this region then i can systematically dynamically dca the cells back out take the profits and the reason i take the profits is because i link i like link so much that i want to make sure i accumulate more of it we said this over here we set it here at the top when i was i was selling and saying you know what this has been a great run were getting close to the end i didnt sell all of it i mean i sold 230 i was out i was out completely out two-thirds of my position by this point if we had pushed higher i would have sold most of the remainder probably not all of it because we also have to recognize that the risk level for link is probably somewhat immature mainly because um uh it hasnt been around that long uh you know link has only been around since 2017 we really dont know what its capable of in a bull market and because of that i think its prudent to exercise some caution when selling link so while i do stick to the risk metric if we were to go up to say point nine or one risk in the short term i would still hold on to a small portion of the link just in case it pushes higher than then the risk metric would would say that it would uh simply because it has not lived through the entirety of a bull market but for now you know for now we we just went down to the 0.5 risk level yesterday and or two days ago again depending on on your time zone uh but now i think its its time to you know see what happens right well see what happens well see if we can push back up if we go below 0.3 if we go below 0.5 risk ill ill just consider this as completely uh entering into re-accumulation zone because so far we have you know weve been in weve been in re-accumulation zone for bitcoin for a while and now weve even dipped below 0.5 but for for link usd we have only recently been in it three times here a couple weeks later here even though we had a wick that went down and then most recently a day or two ago right here this is the only time uh as far as im concerned that i would have accumulated link and and and so if we can get below 0.5 then i mean i think that would allow people to to come in with you know with more confidence that theyre getting a good deal uh because i think a lot of people you know look at look at the price and see that it was like two dollars earlier this year and then youre looking at it youre like oh its its like 13 um like whose bags am i buying at 13 but but i think that the longer that we spend at these higher levels the more confidence there will be and it ultimately does you know to a large extent depend on on what bitcoin does we we know that um and right now the price of bitcoins at 19.2 you know bitcoin is very much on track i would argue that its ahead of schedule i know some people would disagree with that but i would say that bitcoin is in fact ahead of schedule right now if it if it stays like this um if it stays very bullish and and can you know continue continue some sideways movement for a little while then i think that link will start to make a move okay i think that link will start to make a move the problem is that as long as as long as bitcoin volatility remains high then link is just simply not going anywhere and yes looking at a almost a 13 link is is great right this is this is great but were not here for a 13 link right we want to see like a a 40 link or a 50 link um some of you guys want to see even more than that in the short term but i would say that you know to be patient with link um its its been on an amazing an amazing run over the last few years this is the fair value regression band we talk about a lot this is simply fit to quote-unquote non-bubble data and it does not include this data here so its only fit up to data to this point and what i consider to be non-bubble data take that for what you will we actually recently made this a a indicator that you can get on the premium list again so if you want to check out the premium list sale that we still have going on check that out in the description below you will get access to this indicator now i i had a lot of questions from people about this indicator and so ive actually tweaked it before launching it i did not change the green band but there were some people that were you know talking about if we could if we could have something that you know more encompasses all of this lower data down here you know these wicks that you see um and and also maybe get a little bit more clarity on on some of the upper regions uh when were starting to get overheated like in in these regions right here so what i did i i didnt do a whole lot i just added on uh two more two more regression bands so it looks like this now so now we have this low valuation region which basically encapsulates except for this one wick it encapsulate encapsulates all of the price data more or less these candles here all of this movement down here and it also uh encapsulates the recent move that is is basically i mean the candle is still essentially around the the green band but we have had a wick down into the blue band and and so the only reason im adding this is because once i once i launch it i i hope hopefully it will stand the test of time and so weve added on and i just simply added on one more one more layer at the bottom to encapsulate this data this data this data and also maybe the the data that were seeing now and then i also added on the the red band to you know to see that okay for if we get above that then you might want to consider it into you know short-term bubble territory right wherever it is for above the red band i would argue short-term bubble for sure if were if were in the green band were around the fair value if we are in the blue band were completely undervalued the the one thing i dont like about this indicator is that um it assumes that we will have exponential growth against bitcoin forever which we know is simply not true right we know its not true as much as we would like to believe that link will just continue to go up exponentially against bitcoin forever we know that its not going to happen and so the trend will change at some point and if it changes here right so be it right if it does something like this and then and you know it completely changes its trend so be it but in case in case it doesnt and in case we do follow this pattern i want people to be able to use this this indicator and training view so again if you want access to it check out the premium list in the description below um if you if you take a look at link ether it is actually pretty undervalued right now still uh and weve been this undervalued before so if you if you go from the 20-week moving average were currently 26 below weve also seen periods where weve been around 40 something percent below uh here we were about 16 below there have not been many times in history where link has been this undervalued against ethereum um and by the way when i talk about undervaluation i mean this is compared to a fairly bullish evaluation of link against ether because its essentially saying that okay since existence more or less link is has been above the 20-week moving average the 20 week sma and the 21 week ema um since inception except for a few key times and so this is what i i want to to outline is that we are very undervalued right now i dont know how low were going to go thats a fools game i think trying to time the exact bottom but if you if you look at it here on a daily time frame you know maybe maybe well put in the bottom soon it looks like weve started to come back up a little bit however we also know that this necessarily doesnt mean anything especially if bitcoin were to all of a sudden uh go back down to 17k or something in the short term then we would expect link to also come back down as well because as long as bitcoin volatility remains high the rest of the market is is going to kind of be at its bidding in a sense right if bitcoin we know that bitcoin runs the roost right it simply runs the ruse so uh well keep an eye on things remember if you guys like the content subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up also check out the telegram channel in the description below we have over 10 000 people in the telegram groom the telegram room could always use more link marines and then also check out the premium list again if you guys want access to the premium content hopefully this video has been useful to you and subscribe and ill see you next time bye I prefer to see two risk metric align before starting my own re-accumulation of LINK, and we recently hit that level a couple days ago, and unfortunately immediately bounced out of it. Not only do I like to see the LINK/BTC risk below 0.65, but I also want to see LINK/USD risk below 0.500. The risk on LINK/USD recently dipped below 0.500 for the 3rd time over the last few months! In this video we dive back into Chainlink and discuss its valuation against BTC, ETH, and USD.BLACK FRIDAY SALE: Black Friday LIFETIME OPTION: Alternative Option: Telegram: Twitter: Discord: Facebook: Reddit: Website: