chainlink vs ethereum redditChainlink: The path to $100

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hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today were going to talk about chain link and the potential path to a hundred dollar link so if you guys like the content please go ahead and subscribe to the channel and give the video a thumbs up also be sure to check out the telegram channel and the premium list in the description below so lets go ahead and jump in so i understand the title is a little clickbaity uh but i just want to walk you guys through some of the past data were going to go through about 30 different charts here so its going to be a lot well some of them are just drawings on the same chart but were going to go through a lot of charts and and show you kind of the data what the data suggests and then make somewhat dubious extrapolations so lets go ahead and get started the first chart right were familiar with this one it just its color coding the price of link by whether bitcoin is above or below the 20-week moving average now you can see here you know it becomes fairly obvious that when bitcoin is above the 20-week moving average weve been talking about this a long time by the way but this is when it tends to go parabolic and right on cue it has gone parabolic and congratulations we have now hit a 10 link so again this right is just business as usual in fact its really not its really not that out of the ordinary it would be more out of the ordinary if bitcoin were above the 20 week and link were not pumping up significantly so you know with that in mind this is actually you know its just business as usual now if we plotted you know link versus bitcoin right so instead of plotting it versus usc we plot it link vs bitcoin weve noted this long-term trend line for a long time weve talked about this before now one of the things i want to remind you of right is since were talking about links valuation against bitcoin its important to get an idea of what we what we think bitcoin may do maybe by january of 2022 because we can see that by that time were going to be at approximately a ratio 0.00 or 0.005 with respect to bitcoin if you kind of take the middle of the road here uh so what would bitcoin be doing by say january of 2022 well weve spoken about bitcoin before right and we have our logarithmic regression band fit to non-bubble data um and it projects out a few years right and we know that theres speculative bubbles that come off of this band but we also know that in the last market cycle we reach the previous all-time high within the band now it was not the case during the first cycle we were we were actually outside of the band already but if we were to project the last market cycle forward so if we say the peak that we saw in 2013 we reached that peak again in early 2017 and it was within the regression ban if we assume the same thing happens you know something like this then we may assume that bitcoin will get to a 20 000 bitcoin maybe by the end of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022 and were not talking about getting just getting to 20k were talking about getting to a sustainable 20k right because its possible we go like this and we kind of continue on up our fair value line and then ultimately peak at around a hundred thousand dollars or just over in 2023. its also possible because some of you are freaking out that we have a short term speculative bubble that takes us to 20k and then maybe then we come back down into the regression band some of you guys obviously are probably watching this given the nature of the title uh it was obviously a little bit of clickbait in a sense i admit that but given given given that fact some of you might think well why cant bitcoin go to a million so just for you ive included the possibility that bitcoin goes to a million dollars but then it probably comes right back down to the regression ban and still is around a sustainable 20 000 bitcoin in about four 14 months so lets suppose again you know despite the fact that most of you or a lot of you would probably not agree with it that suppose that were at a sustainable 20 000 bitcoin not a not a not a bubble 20 000 bitcoin but a sustainable 20 000 bitcoin in about 14 or 15 months or so somewhere around that time frame if thats the case and link continues on up this trend line right continues just lets say it stays in the middle of the road then we know well be approximately at point zero zero five link if were in the middle now weve made a video on this before saying that okay maybe its point zero zero four but lets just show what if were you know kind of around the middle of the band and its a valuation of point zero .005 link with respect to bitcoin well if we just suppose that bitcoin is 20 000 in early 2022 and remembering our stoichiometry from chem 101 back in high school and you just cant you say 20 000 bitcoin times .005 link per bitcoin said bitcoin cancels out and it gives you a hundred dollar link now if this were the case you know i mean for for this to be the case link needs to continue on this very bullish movement right it has to its going to be fairly aggressive and one of the things we know with link is that it has been very aggressive on its valuation increase against bitcoin during the bear market and during the accumulation phase the question right is can it keep up with bitcoin once the bull market really gets in full swing and bitcoins going you know from uh from 11k to 14k to 18k to 20k will it be able to keep up and the answer remains to be seen right we dont know if its if its going to continue up this trend line here if maybe during a bitcoin bull run maybe it would even become more aggressive or the chance that it could become less aggressive because you know people would then tend to just pour their money into bitcoin uh during those moves and we know right weve looked at the risk-adjusted returns for lincoln bitcoin we know that by including link in a portfolio that has bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in it it does improve your risk your risk adjusted returns so it improves the sharpe ratio it improves the where you are on the efficient frontier using modern portfolio theory by having link in your portfolio the reason right is because well the returns have been great but also because it reduces your overall volatility and what i mean by that is you know on days where bitcoin is going down like today link is going up so it increases your your sharp ratio it increases your sorting ratio which only punishes negative volatility um so it increases a lot it improves a lot of this and this is why weve been saying for a long time now the link is a good addition historically speaking to a portfolio and it continues to prove why that is the case you know yes we made these projections months ago and its still continuing to prove to be the case so if as we said if bitcoin goes to 20k in 14 or 15 months and this valuation were to you know continue on at that rate then we might expect a 100 like now this would be like the most bullish scenario i could imagine like i i dont im not saying obviously that were going to get to 100 link in in such a short amount of time i think its probably more likely that it would take a little bit longer than that uh because it still obviously remains to be seen whether link can keep up this ratio of of or its valuation against bitcoin even in a bull market but again if it does and these things play out then maybe it would be around 100 length plus or minus you know 10 or 20 bucks right i mean whats a few bucks among friends uh so this is this is generally what what im looking for now some sometimes it could seem like how could this be i mean this is this would be insane you know to see link go to a hundred dollars um but remember you know if you come back to this chart over here it wasnt that long ago the link was 20 cents and it had no problem 10xing to two dollars it wasnt that long ago that link was one dollar and again it had no problem 10xing to 10 so as we move up the curve its going to get harder and harder right i mean its its gonna get harder you know to go from say ten dollars to a hundred dollars of course but it doesnt mean it cant do it and it doesnt mean it cant do it if the appropriate conditions are there you know bitcoins bullish heck we even know with linkedin bitcoin doesnt even have to be bullish to go up i mean this is this is just kind of its mo it goes up against bitcoin no matter what bitcoins doing and tends to go short-term parabolic against bitcoin when bitcoins about the 20-week moving average so this is this is business as usual with link now if we continue on so were gonna were gonna continue to march through this now this one is a graph i showed a long time ago i think i showed this graph back in may its the price versus the daily transaction so this is this was about you know a few months old and we speculated right that if if if we were to get to a 10 link we would need to see the daily transactions continue to go up and this is on a log log scale and if we update it what do you see happening i mean you just see it filling in that curve so were basically filling in like uh two or three months of data right here its like adding in i think two or three months of data i mean you can see it over here it goes to maybe like april or may and now its going all the way out to august so it fills out a few months of data and were still continuing on in this trend line and you can see we had broken a ten dollar link uh you know and the daily transactions have have increased you know up to ten to the four um so so i mean it seems like its still on course in order for us to get to a hundred dollar link this needs to go up by you know at least maybe 10 to 20 x i would say probably like 20 x we need to see the n need to see the the the network activity increase by another order of magnitude or so uh maybe a little bit more than an order of magnitude to see because you can see that you know this is if were at 10 to the four i mean actually were a little bit higher than that so we would need to get to at least a little over two times ten of the five so you know were going to have to see this continue to go up and if it happens at the bottom of it then we even need to be closer to 10 to the six but again its its certainly possible given a lot of new people coming into the space now this is just some random projection maybe it you know maybe oscillates in that window now here is the valuation of link against bitcoin and looking at the same type of move if we were to get to a ratio of 0.005 against bitcoin if bitcoin ends up being 20k at that point then we would just need to do something like this and again see the daily transactions can continue to march on up now its certainly possible that link the link valuation against bitcoin is not able to maintain that course right its certainly possible that it slows down it doesnt mean that we cant get to a hundred dollar link it just means like it might take longer in that situation uh for for link to make it there um one thing you should note right is that the current valuation of link against bitcoin is ten to the minus three okay now imagine a scenario where a link at like imagine a a bearish scenario for link where the valuation of link against bitcoin just stays the same for the next three years and it doesnt move which i mean it will move but lets just suppose it doesnt move well if it doesnt move and bitcoin goes to 100k then that puts link at a hundred dollars because its going up by 10x its maintaining the ratio against bitcoin and if we suppose that bitcoin goes up 10x then we would also expect link to then stay there with it if its maintaining the same ratio in reality we know that when bitcoin goes up link tends to bleed against bitcoin and when link goes up bitcoin bitcoin tends to bleed against link they dont really move in tandem right they they they move opposite of one another in a sense they it improves the covariance matrix when you calculate your risk adjusted returns uh so this is the whole point writing of including link in a portfolio if we look at our logarithmic regression band you can see that the first attempt right and we said this way back here we said that if bitcoin breaks the 20 week which it did that were probably going to go parabolic and get up to this red red you know red regression line and weve made it there we made it we held it as resistance came back down ive not redrawn this line by the way go back and look at the other videos and weve continued on up into it just like we did in 2017. if we continue to the top of it were talking about a 30 link in the short term now whether that remains to be i mean whether that happens remains to be seen im just telling you you know where it could theoretically take us uh if you know if this were to act as any type of resistance ive also mentioned before right the the fairly dubious nature of this regression line because there is a there is very limited data for link so its possible right that we could even come above this regression line if we dont come above the regression line if we stay within it then it would take until maybe the end of 2022 early 2023 to get to a 100 link um so i mean its a its a matter of perspective right i mean theres nothing you know theres nothing for keeping link from going above this line its just originally what our and so the yellow line is our fair value fit and these are just showing you our by you know our typical bioregion and then the ultimate cell region back in in 2017 and then projecting that forward so this is the whole point of the regression line does not mean that we cannot break it now what if we compare what if we do an update here were going to look at the normalized roi of link against ethereum or versus ethereum and bitcoin by looking at the days since inception now the important thing to remember right is ethereum was born into a bull market it was born into one link on the other hand was born into the basically the the very end of the bull market it was it was only a few days old when it when the bear market hit really um so it was molded by the bear market and now its really starting to shine uh you can see that over the last few hundred days the roi has continued to go up and in fact the roi from the bottom for link at least given the the normalization points that ive used is above you know where ethereum was at the bottom of the bear market so i mean there arent many cryptocurrencies in you know there arent many cryptocurrencies that have a chart this attractive where the roi has gone up this much since inception and through the bear market you know again ive said before a lot of coins are down 95 90 to 95 percent from their prior all-time highs uh from 2017 2018 well link did not get that memo and its its just doing its own thing right its just continuing to march on its you know its all-time high from 2017 2018 its its but a distant memory right i mean its so far past that at this point its its not even a concern anymore of it breaking that um so i mean you can see that right i mean its not that hard to imagine that if if the bull market really does get kicked off and and things stay bullish then link could obviously be one of the poster you know the poster child of the market cycle of you know we look back and say yeah link was the coin that outperformed most other coins again this is not financial advice this is just looking at what it has done through a bear market and its and the reason why its impressive right is because its not just its not just one of those things where it pumps and then it and then it and then it just goes away a few weeks later it it continues on up right it continues on up i thought about making a link video the other day when it was around eight or nine dollars and i was like hell ill just wait a couple days and then ill be ten dollars and sure enough here we are um here it is normalized but on a log log scale so days since obsession days since inception are also shown on a log scale so you can see were right around a thousand days uh continuing to to move on up now weve also spoken about the risk of link uh so i do have a risk metric on the channel this im just providing an update for the link bitcoin risk not the link usd risk so this is the link bitcoin risk you can see that historically theres it tends to you know it tends to kind of print this upper red region kind of a sell point and then it retraces a little bit but ultimately it continues on its merry way and if youre unfamiliar with a risk metric it just goes from zero to one and zero is historically a good time to buy and red is historically a good time to sell of course with link i mean you could just hold it you could just hold it for two or three years and not even worry about trading it um but i mean i do find personally that i you know trying to leverage this information has been useful for me obviously you have to take in into account tax considerations so uh you know if thats a problem for you then you know theres you certainly dont have to follow a strategy but it has been working out fairly well for me now if you if you take the color code out of it and plot the risk on the secondary y-axis you can see that theres an accumulation phase essentially that occurs for link between a risk against bitcoin of 0.55 to 0.65 so you can see that for the last couple of years or so this has basically been that accumulation region and you can see right now were above that accumulation region we almost came back down into it but we didnt quite make it um but i mean this is historically speaking a decent accumulation range for link weve also spoken before about how the risk metric for link is not as confident as say one for bitcoin or ethereum because the link has not lived through an entire bull market if it had lived through an entire bull market then we could get a grasp of what it is really capable of but since it hasnt we dont know what its capable of it might it might completely outperform the last market cycle so much that it redefines what the risk metric even means um so this is why im always im really bullish on link ive held it for a long time im going to continue to hold it its one of those things i say you know its too risky for me not to hold link throughout this market cycle just because of of its historical performance so i mean if youre if youre waiting to get in obviously the best time to get in link was a long time ago if youre waiting for a key entry you know maybe you know you could potentially wait for the the risk against bitcoin to come back down or even you could buy it whenever i mean i dont im not offering here you financial advice if you do want uh access to my you know to exclusive content then be sure to check out my website into the youll get a weekly premium video a weekly premium report a risk dashboard that has a link on it and access to the premium telegram alerts channel which basically tells you you know a lot of my candid thoughts on the market a lot of times what im doing etc so please check it out you can uh the prices are going to be going up on that in a few weeks and if you get it now youll be grandfathered in um so do check it out and then finally make sure you check out the telegram channel we could always use more linked marines in there so check that out wed love to see you join last thing make sure you subscribe to the channel so youll see future link videos and also give the video a thumbs up and turn on your notifications thank you guys for tuning in let me know what you guys think about it in the comments below you can tell me if you think im being too bullish or you can tell me if you think im being too bearish let me know what you guys think and ill see you next time bye We discuss the potential path of LINK to $100. While this seems overly bullish, we show a realistic path of reaching that goal. We compare LINK to BTC and ETH during the video to better understand where LINK is in comparison to those assets. Chainlink has continued to gain on Bitcoin for years, with no real signs of slowing down. Join the Premium List: Alternative Option: Telegram: Twitter: Discord: Facebook: Reddit: Website: