chainlink price prediction trading beastChainlink price prediction using logarithmic regression

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chainlink price prediction trading beast Comment acheter des Sandbox dans la zone Israel... Chainlink price prediction using logarithmic regression
hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the crypto verse today were going to be talking about link were gonna be looking at the logarithmic regression of link prices so if you guys like this content please subscribe to the channel turn your notifications on by clicking the bell icon and check out the telegram channel which you can see in the bottom right hand corner as well as in the description below we have a growing community of around 2600 people and you can stay up to date with all the charts that Im making in the videos that Im publishing so I got a lot of requests to make this video because I published logarithmic regression for other other coins like Bitcoin and an ether and naturally a lot of people were hoping I would make something on shame link considering its you know performance in the bear market its outperformed Bitcoin by about 10x during during this bear market so I Im gonna go ahead and jump in but I also want to to talk about the fact that you know the way that I normally make these videos is I look at a lower you know support line and I wasnt really able to because theres not very much data its really hard to know exactly where I can I can find this region you know do you do you assume that you know this is the this is the support is this region the support theres just not enough data and when you when I try to do stuff without you know with very little data then I end up making lines that are probably not going to be correct so instead I decided to do something a little bit different that I had done for the total cryptocurrency market cap and analysis that Ive done before and that is look at a like what I would say fair valuation of link now this is not a financial advice this is just you know me trying to come up with some type of measure of the of the price of link based on historical data that would be useful to you guys so this is what I came up with and you know basically its looking its minimizing the the some of the logarithmic difference between the price and the regression line so its just minimizing that sum is that the perfect method to do it you know that its up for debate you know plenty of different ways you could do it but what I found was ultimately you know out of the four different ways I found to try to come up with something that I thought was useful they basically all looked like this line and so were just gonna were gonna use this line as our base point but of course were gonna add some level of tolerance to this price just to say okay if its in this region maybe we would consider this quote-unquote fair value based on historical performances of link you know here in the in the bull market you can see a you know popped up pretty high above one dollar and then came back down to this regression line and then went to the undervalued region so I would say you know this region up here is over value this is under value and then this is say the fair value okay this is just one outlined one way to look at it now I also created this line down here just because I wanted to note that you know there was a you know a slight trend in the price down here to say that this is maybe you know could be considered a a very strong thigh region and as far as a link is concerned you know Im not even sure if it would ever visit this region again I mean at some point I imagine it would weigh out into infinity in time but you know its still pretty low even at todays prices I mean for it to get back into this band the price would have to drop down to say 50 or 60 cents or so which no I mean remains to be seen if something like that would happen but this is is kind of our lower bound region here on the contrary this would say be our upper down region so basically these are all the same regression lines on the click you know only Im only varying one of the two coefficients to get all of these lines and this one is you know uses this pole this point up here is the constraint and this one uses this point so you can see that the lower bound of that you know the red region is corresponds to this peak and the upper bound corresponds to the first peak over here and you know this peak was you know fairly impressive itself because you know Cain and 2017-2018 when everything in the mark it was going up essentially but this peak is or this move here I should say is much more impressive because a lot of coins did very well during this time but most did not perform this well and out of the coins that did perform this well they most certainly you know for the most part were not holding that level for an extended period of time most of them came back down so you know as I said its it can be difficult using logarithmic regression to identify say lower bounds and upper pounds when the price just seems to for the most part continue going up even in a their market but anyways you know this is something you know that I came up with the show say a fair valuation say are hugely undervalued region and then way up here is you know I would say again not that its financial advice but just to say that this would be our you know completely overbought region you know likely sell region and you can see you know we hit it in this this plane right here in 2018 and as well as we hit the lower bound in 2019 no Ive also talked before about the 20 week moving average for Bitcoin and historically when Bitcoin is above the 20 week moving average it performs say all coins perform very well when its below the 20 week moving average all coins perform not so well so here Ive outlined this so you can quickly see it when Bitcoin is below the 20 week the points are colored in white when its above the 20 week the points are colored in blue what do you see link tends to have these huge breakout moves when Bitcoin is above the 20 week moving average so currently the 20 week moving average of Bitcoin is around seventy eight hundred dollars so if you if you follow the markets you know you might you you know if you follow a link anyways its also useful to follow Bitcoin because if you cant follow Bitcoin and identify you know when its going above the 20 week moving average then based on historical patterns you might see a move in link commiserate with what weve seen in the past so this is you know this is one of those things that obviously doesnt have to keep repeating yourself that cycle doesnt have to repeat but it doesnt mean you cant use historical data to help guide you know what types of investments that youre making so currently bitcoin is still below thats one a week moving average because you can see the prices and these price points are white but if we were to get above the 20 week moving average then I would expect the link would see a nice move on as well and we would want to see it you know Bitcoin get above the 20 week now whats really impressive as is you know this move here came and stayed constant for the most part despite the fact that dick coin fell below the 20-week so thats whats really remarkable with link and as one of the reasons why Ive been covering it since since last year so I want to extend this out of that because a lot of people are wondering well where could this put us at a theoretical speculative bubble in the entire cryptocurrency asset class where might it put us and this is obviously very speculative you know making any type of price prediction obviously carries a huge level of uncertainty and one of the things that I noticed in the crypto space is that most people just throw out numbers they dont actually show any reasons why they believe thats the case they just put a number out there because thats the number that would make them a millionaire or help them reach a certain target in their mind but they have no basis for it so at least I try to provide some evidence the the validity of the evidence is is you know a little bit hand wavy on but you know at least hopefully it provides a perspective that you might not get anywhere else so again please subscribe to the channel if you if you guys like these you know unique perspectives to the cryptocurrency market so lets like to send these out Ive extended it out to 2025 and a lot of people are gonna say well why do you extend it out so far why why do we think that we need to go this far out why dont we just look at say 2021 because thats when the cryptocurrency market is gonna peak right like wouldnt it be 2021 and if you follow my channel you know you know the my thoughts on this are you know I would love it for cryptocurrency the whole day ask that class as a whole to go through a huge speculative bubble by the end of 2021 and keep on that 4-year cycle that so many people think is going to happen however I think the evidence suggests otherwise and quickly I just want to show what I mean so this is the crypto currency market cap and trend line so basically its doing something very similar to what Ive done with link but obviously its been a it extends over a decade of data so you can see when were undervalued and when were overvalued in terms of the cryptocurrency market capitalization as a whole currently were sitting near that very undervalued phase and I anticipate that were gonna stay in this region for an extended period of time if we look at the percent difference between the peak and the primary regression band then it looks like this and this is the the just that percent difference red line is the fair valuation so if the if its going below the red line that means its undervalued this is you know these three peaks here correspond to the three peaks you see in on the chart and you can see that were seeing these diminishing returns in terms of the whole cryptocurrency market capitalization and the time between these bubbles is getting longer so that leads me to believe that the next bubble will likely be further out here Im putting it on the same chart superimposing it just so you can try to appreciate how this chart is derived from this chart again its just the percent difference between this and the red line for all prices so you can write better identify overvaluation and undervaluation these are used for say macro level moves in the market and again you know heres another graph of just the bitcoin price which you know shows diminishing returns as well as you can see the slope is getting lower and lower and if we continue to extend this out we might expect to see a six-figure bitcoins sometime in 2023 again if you look at market cycle bottoms you can see that you know the first one the difference between the first and the second was two and a half years the next almost for years so a lot of people think were on a four-year cycle because you know the having is is approximately every four years I think whats more likely is the cycles are lengthening its not clear if its if its increasing you know on a linear scale or if its you know going to go up exponentially maybe its every four years and you know this was just some anomaly dont discount anything be prepared for anything be prepared to react for anything but I think the evidence suggests that you know were not going to see a speculative bubble peak in the cryptocurrency asset class in 2021 maybe you know something like this is something that I might expect and this is looking at the ROI of Bitcoin over over an extended period of time so the running arla I think this is yeah this is the one-year ROI so if youre just looking at the one-year ROI it paints things in a different picture than just plotting say the price so you can see how how things you know continue to get extended and this nicely drawn imaginary line shows you know these things peaking here here and here and that we would ultimately expect another peak maybe somewhere near this imaginary line that would also show us diminishing returns in the cryptocurrency market or at least for this one its for Bitcoin but ultimately I think it would be projected out to the whole cryptocurrency market so lets get back to link because thats what everyone is here for so with this knowledge in mind with the idea that the next speculative bubble peak is not until say 2023 plus or minus some tolerance you know what is the path that link might go over the next few years and and realistically speaking this really I dont think is bad news for link holders because link tends to perform fairly well even in a dare market so as long as as long as even the bear market slash accumulation phase continues and link just keeps doing its thing where it continues to gain ground on Bitcoin whether its a you know whether Bitcoin is above or below thats one a week moving average but whenever Bitcoin is above it seeing these huge moves this just gives you more and more time to say accumulate you know link over the next say year or so Im a big proponent of saying 2019 2020 and even part of 2021 are the times to accumulate and so this just gives you more time to ultimately accumulate before potentially a breakout speculative bubble going into 2022 and 2023 maybe even 2024 so at the time of the projected Bitcoin peak and say in the middle of 2023 and this would correspond to something like this line here then maybe a path that we could take would look something like this where we get up into this you know this final speculative bubble region that might range between say $30 up to around $100 you know in about three years or so obviously this is a very bullish prediction even if we were to do something like this its not you know it wouldnt be completely unheard of for something like this to happen I mean if you know Bitcoin dumps down to the 200 week moving average if we think of an ultimate bearish scenario where I may be dumps down to 300 week moving average again because we did have a wick already down to that point out around $3,800 so dont discount anything just be prepared for anything so even in the case of a bearish scenario you know maybe we come back down to this lower band at the bottom but ultimately smart money is looking at is looking at you know the the evidence that we see in the cryptocurrency market to suggest that we dont you know a peak is likely not happening in 2021 and that ultimately we are we are expecting more likely to see a peak later on than 2021 but again if it happens in 2021 we will be prepared for it and were gonna be you know you know smart money will be taking profits if we enter into that speculative bubble phase and I have all sorts of videos on my channel that help us identify when that might occur and its not just looking at say the relative strength index and that sort of stuff I have a lot of some videos that looking at the different types of metrics even risk metrics to identify when something like that might happen so I use all the data that I can to suggest when things might happen so that we can plan accordingly but were prepared in case something else happens so again you know I just this this whole video is just meant for you know for for the link holders the link Marines to look at something that is somewhat based in in data and not just throwing out a number and to try to identify what are likely paths forward over the coming years and obviously one would be if you know if if from a fundamental point of view if a recession if this is a long and extended recession and people to liquidate their high-risk assets and Bitcoin dumps back down to say at the 200 moving average or further are further then be prepared for a move like that on the on the other hand there is no obvious correlation between cryptocurrency markets and and the traditional markets I I made a video on that in the past there is really no correlation between them just like theres no correlation between gold and and the stock markets really so at the same time you know we might just keep marching on cryptocurrency might just keep doing its thing maybe were gonna stay in this regression band that I showed back here Im for the total cryptocurrency market cap so imagine this is say 2023 maybe were gonna stay in this region for a long time before breaking out so that is a possibility just be prepared for anything now the last thing I wanted to say again is you know if you if you want check out the telegram channel we have 2,600 members we could definitely use some more link Marines in there if you guys want to join the discussions we we talk about a lot of different coins and we try to keep things focused on unencrypted currency related topics and for those who like this type of content and want more of it I do have a patreon channel where I do publish a weekly newsletter or you I dont even know if its a newsletter is a right word its a report on on different animal cold topics would encrypt our courtesy and that comes out tentatively every Sunday for right now and well and as well we have other other perks like a private telegram channel and a link to a Google sheet document that has various risk metrics and an over valuation undervaluation that sort of stuff so if you want to support the channel feel free to join up and if not at least subscribe to the channel so you can see the future videos thanks for tuning in I hope this is valuable to everyone let me know what you think about it in the comments below and I will see you next time bye By popular request, here is some price speculation on LINK, the cryptocurrency which has outperformed Bitcoin by 10x during the bear market. We define a fair valuation logarithmic regression band to potentially identify undervaluation/overvaluation. We then take a detour to show the evidence of lengthening cycles within the cryptocurrency asset class as a whole. From here, we leverage this information to further speculate on the timing of the blow-off top, speculative bubble phase of LINK.This is definitively not financial advice, but rather a mathematical projection into the future. Please join the telegram channel if you want to join the community! Telegram: Twitter: Discord: Facebook: Reddit: Website: Premium content pay with crypto: Premium content pay with fiat: