how to sell chainlink in americaChainlink: $100 in 2021?

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hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today were going to talk about chain link were going to be looking at its valuation against the us dollar bitcoin and ethereum seeing how far it has come since 2018 where do we currently stand if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the telegram channel which you can find a link to in the description below lets go ahead and jump in so to give a general update on the link bitcoin risk metric this is where we are we have been in this area before a lot of times when the link bitcoin valuation gets this low it does not stay that low very long and i should say im not talking about the actual link bitcoin valuation im talking about the link bitcoin risk metric which is attached obviously to the link bitcoin valuation so what do you notice when you look at this chart weve had these periods of of amazing growth of a linked bitcoin valuation followed by pullbacks and we just systematically go through this um for the last several years and one of the things we said was we do not know what will happen when bitcoin goes into a bull market given bitcoin volatility we know that link does not typically like a lot of high bitcoin volatility and that it would likely be put on the back burner for a while and now we look back at it and we say okay well this was a major bubble the valuation went to around 170 000 satoshis i told you guys back back then on the public youtube channel in fact that things were getting way overheated and you can see how overheated they were in with respect to other prior moves and the idea think of thinking that you know what this time is not going to be any different since then we have fallen to levels that we have not seen since july of 2018 except for you know when we just saw it earlier this year but this whole this area that we that were in that weve been in we have not been in this area for a long time now if youre unfamiliar with this chart its just the linked bitcoin valuation on a logarithmic scale color coded by the risk metric which ranges from zero to one and it goes from blue to red and so blue is historically low risk red is historically high you can see that right now its historically low and one of the reasons again is because link does not tend to do so well when bitcoin volatility is very high therefore the link bitcoin valuation has been bleeding over the last several months mainly since last summer since we had that manic move last summer now if we take the color out of it and just put it on the put the risk on the secondary y-axis with the link bitcoin risk metric you can see that we tend to peak right around this area between the 0.9 to 1 risk band however there are some mini bubbles that dont take us up quite as high some of them peak at around 0.8 risk maybe some between the 0.7 to 0.8 wristband but the major bubbles that occur weve had three of them with respect to bitcoin and all of them peaked in the 0.9 to 1 risk ban and so you could generally look at this and say well anything below 0.5 is is not nearly as risky right a general amazing accumulation time if youre just imagining the bitcoin valuation disregarding the usd valuation and then the 0.9 to one wristband up here is a time when things are very overheated and you can see that the time between visits to the 0.921 wristband is a significant amount of time i mean this was january of 2018 to july of 2019 this was july of 2019 to around august or so of 2020. and so the the period between moves into this band can be over a year okay and and again theres a high probability that it will take at least another year from when we hit it last last july or august or so theres a good probability that it will take at least until this summer late this summer to potentially make it back up to that wristband we do not go immediately up the prior moves i mean yes they can they can go up relatively quickly but a lot of times you know they can still take several months and it can also be a lot of consolidation before doing it so even if we were to go straight up now theres a good chance that it would still take a few months to actually make it back to the point nine to one wristband of course well be ready for whatever comes our way now you also i also like to take into account the link usd risk valuation and and notice that we we sort of follow the same thing this is the link usd price um and on a logarithmic scale color coded by the wrist metric the same idea we take the color code out of it you can see we generally peek up in this area between point eight to one risk everything else in between is more or less these little bunny hills to form the link usd risk right now is is actually relatively elevated i mean its above the 0.5 level significantly right its actually slightly above 0.6 and so you know its not necessarily in say the best accumulation region we were actually in a much better accumulation region not too long ago in fact even earlier this year the very beginning of january the risk on link usd was actually below 0.5 and you know i said back then you know for for the people that have been following this channel for a while theyll remember this range right here because it was very painful for a lot of people uh the valuation of link was just generally going up uh slightly and then we had a fairly substantial pullback down to around eight dollars i said this is a huge opportunity if youre just looking at the risk levels we dipped below 0.5 risk which in my opinion represented a huge opportunity to to come back into the market which is what i did heavily here and over here during some of these dips based on the risk metric going 2.5 or below and you see how quickly times can change now what happens though and and weve seen this play out several times is that a lot of people get frustrated with link because it will it wont go up 2x in over a few months right and the problem is that the people that have been around link for the longest are fairly happy with the games right i mean were sitting pretty weve watched it go up year over year basically for several years in a row it goes to these boom and bust phases but the the the down phases really arent that bad its more so just the price calming down for a while and not going nearly as manic as it as it can during during these crazy phases of the cycle but what you look at now and i think this would be a good discussion for people that are new to the market now and maybe they bought link at the the prior the actually current all-time high closer you know close to forty dollars what ive said before i i will say again okay i think link will bail you out now what i mean by that is back during last summer a lot of people bought link at twenty dollars at this point right here and then they subsequently regretted it fairly quickly and on this channel we were saying you know what if you look at the link bitcoin risk its fairly heated right now the people buying at this level its not necessarily the smartest decision and then when you looked at the link usd risk we also could see it was also fairly elevated and so what i said was that you know yes you bought it 20 or some people bought at 20. and theyre theyre pretty theyre pretty feeling pretty discouraged down here when it was ranging between like say eight to twelve dollars but i said i do think that link will bail you out and and that time is on your side and then just to learn from your mistakes and and now were sort of in that same region again its not as bad because you know the prices hasnt hasnt gone down like 60 or 70 since since that point but the the problem is that the people that buy at the all-time high are generally the loudest and can contribute to some negative sentiment for link because they came in at the worst time and i see all these ridiculous posts where people say you know link is the worst performing coin in their portfolio well you know when you buy a coin thats uh several hundred times over a few years and it doesnt go up the minute you buy it theres a good chance that these people are going to be upset because theyre theyre used to seeing or they look at the chart they see what it did over the last few years and then get frustrated when it doesnt immediately do that and so what happened back over here in 20 20 20 a lot of people bought it 20 and then ended up capitulating later to then just a few months later watch it go all the way up to close to 40 almost twice what they probably bought it for and so we sort of just keep repeating this cycle where people buy at the top and then they regret it for a while and then the people that hold on are are you know they tend to be bailed out after a certain period of time some people capitulate only to buy back the new all-time high several months later so when you look at these charts you have to remember that anything is possible in the short term right there can always be pullbacks even if if bitcoin capitulates theres a decent chance that link would have a pullback as well but then if bitcoin volatility were calmed down after that then link could go on a nice move so the point here is to say theres always the downside risk there but that the people that have actually been sticking with link for years are the winners not the people that keep trying to trying to fomo in whenever it starts to move okay its the people that stick with it this is not a day trading channel its more so meant for longer term investments timing momentum shifts in the market waiting for key opportunities like this to move into the market and then you just sort of wait for the pump to happen weve already seen a forex basically by the way this year i mean even as as measured from 2021 we know the valuation of link was all the way down here um uh you know what what was it i mean i think it it it back in back in december it went all the way down to uh i think we had a nice a nice pullback um to to to around the 10 mark or so but since then since then we know weve gone up almost to 40 bucks so weve seen it basically a three to four x move this year alone and so i do think that link is still continuing to to stand the test of time its just that a lot of people get used to the gains and then they fumble in at the top and then they get discouraged when it doesnt immediately continue going up but again the people that went out with link the most are the people that are just theyve been holding for a long time not the people that are constantly day trading it in my opinion now if you look at the link valuation against usd color-coded based off whether bitcoin is above or below its 20-week moving average you can see that its basically business as usual and its hard to look at this chart and be sad i mean all you see generally speaking since january of 2019 or even december of 2018 is that the link valuation has just been generally going up i mean we had a major move here to four dollars and then a pullback to less than two dollars and then a move back up to 20 and then a pull back to eight dollars and now weve had to move up to 37 or so and then weve had a nice little pullback but were still continuing this general up trend and we also note that whenever bitcoin is above the 20-week moving average link tends to go parabolic and this is the first time since links been around that bitcoin has stayed above the 20-week moving average for nearly this long and despite the fact that it may seem like link doesnt do anything sometimes you can still see its generally trending up and this is why i keep saying that i do think link will shine i dont think its going to shine while bitcoin volatility remains high but sometime later this year maybe this summer could be another time for link to shine the last bubble happened in the summer the bubble before that was in the summer the bubble before that was in is in january of 2018. so if history is any indication that as long as bitcoin stays above the 20-week moving average link will continue to do well even if bitcoin does not stay above the 20-week moving average a lot of times you dont see the same type of capitulation with link as you do a lot of other coins of course its going to pull back some but you might not see that 80 capitulation that some all coins show if you look at the link bitcoin valuation which we should do to be fair to its valuation against bitcoin yes it has pulled back over the last several months however it still is in a general uptrend over a long period of time it could be that we are starting a new trend now i did say i do not think this exponential growth will continue you might say well this doesnt look exponential to me its a logarithmic scale so a straight line like this on a logarithmic scale is is essentially exponential growth so this was an exponential growth of the linked bitcoin valuation it has pulled back while bitcoin volatility has been high we said we do not know what will happen when bitcoins in a bull market clearly link is having some trouble keeping up with bitcoin but as long as as long as bitcoin remains about the 20 week the valuation against usd is still doing relatively well okay so if we look at our logarithmic regression this is a logarithmic regression of the linked prices uh you know its somewhat hand wavy i will give you that but you have this the general green band which is the undervaluation region meaning man if it ever goes there it represents a key opportunity you have the yellow band which is what i would consider to be the fair value and i dont really know how long we can spend away from the fair value i mean and note that this is going to we can refit this every every phase of the cycle um and then we have our upper red regression band that weve refit over the last couple months and it encompasses this first peak if we were to go back into it to the top it could correspond to you know i mean maybe we can reach a three figure link at some point this year but again to some degree the stars will have to align for that i think to some degree as well well need to see diminished bitcoin volatility if bitcoins continue to go into price discovery mode week after week after week then it is going to make it more challenging for link to put in these amazing amazing returns now that doesnt mean that that that link cant go to three figures i just think the more likely way that it goes to three figures is once bitcoin volatility has decisively calmed down and not just for a couple days yes we can see link go to 35 or 40 maybe even 50 but in order to see link truly shine we need to see in my opinion we likely need to see bitcoin volatility decisively diminish where theres no temptation of it immediately going back into price discovery mode in say the next couple days okay so link is looking good across many metrics the main the main one that it looks somewhat bearish against right now is against bitcoin and the reason again for that is because of the high level of bitcoin volatility if you look at the link roi as measured against ethereum and bitcoin if you normalize it what you do notice is that it is doing fairly well and its in fact past where ethereum would be at the same period of time although it does not include the fact that ethereum launched and then immediately saw a retracement so if we measured ethereum from this bottom then ethereum would probably be much higher but again im not going to cherry pick the data were just normalizing it as launched from inception so as at the same period it is now ahead of ethereum uh fairly significantly despite the fact that a lot of its a lot of its um time that it was around was actually during a bear market so while ethereum was moving down during during uh the bear market right well while ethereum was moving down during this phase uh 2018 um and then going sideways in 2019 link was actually just trending up generally during that time and i even made a video back then saying link the light in a in the bear market because it was the one putting in among the best games here it is if you look at it on a log log scale which is an interesting perspective if you look at the 30-day roi of link it tends to flirt with a a 2x every few months right i mean heres a 2x heres another one you know you just keep going back and youll see that the 30-day roi link can often hit that 2x mark if you look at the 90-day roi weve seen 4-5 x several times here we even saw as high as 6-7 x and you can see it is generally trending up now because link has has been doing fairly well over the last three months and then the 365-day roi of link is actually just chilling above 10x so again this shows again that the people that sit on link the longer for longer periods of time historically these are the people that are rewarded because your one-year roi on link is is was here it was well above 10 x approaching 15 to 20 x yes it pulled down all the way to just over a slight increase on your return over a year but its gone quickly you know its gone straight back up so the people that have been holding link the longest tend to be doing the best and this is why i keep saying you know yes people are going to chase those local tops but its the people that just sort of stick with it and continue continue the discipline continue sticking with it for the long haul so far these are the people that keep winning out time and time again so with that said i want to quickly go back over to trading view and look at the charts the link the link usd bull market support band now ranges from 22.87 up to 23.79 so were well above that this is the same area we basically wrote a support from september all the way until january september 2020 through january people were very disenfranchised with link during this period because it wasnt doing a whole lot but it was also just coming off a major move where it had moved from all the way down from just over a dollar to about 20 uh in a relatively short period of time just maybe like several months or so and then it came back consolidated around the 20-week moving average or the 21-week ema had another fairly impressive move all the way down from a low of eight dollars up to around 37 weve been coming back down and moving sideways and the bull market support ban is slowly catching up uh the current valuation being over 31 so were still a waste from it but this has provided support so far during the bull market so we moved above it in april and since then we have not really had any weekly closes below our bull market support band again the bull market sport band back in september was less than ten dollars by by february the bull market sport band was around 17 or so now its around 23 and were just slowly and steadily moving up if you look at the link bitcoin valuation this is one of the things i mentioned to everyone that it does really look like one of those textbook bubble things where you have that takeoff the first sell-off media attention enthusiasm greed delusion need paradigm denial return to normal fear capitulation to spare the return to me you see that same thing right this is the mean this is that amazing bubble and then back down and then back to where were basically regressing towards the mean and this is what i said several months ago was that i do not think were necessarily going to go back up into a major bubble immediately but it could just be that the linked bitcoin valuation is generally reversing back to its mean rather than going back into a meet a major manic bubble we just spoke about the bull market support band with respect to the usd valuation of link here it is with respect to bitcoin so with respect to bitcoin as measured using the bull market support ban link actually is in a bear market with respect to its bitcoin valuation and it has been since we broke it over here back in october you could argue the beginning of it was in august and it had it went up to the bull market sport band got handily rejected by it back in january and we have been coming back down but the nice thing is that the the return to the mean is starting to converge with our bull market support ban so maybe over the next few months well well really get back on course and then try to try to maybe put in either a summer bubble or it could be later than that but again that will depend on bitcoin volatility if you look at the link aetherium valuation its also somewhat bearish in the sense that it has been losing a significant amount of value since august of 2020 but when you zoom out you can see that you know since june of 2018 it was its its still been doing relatively well and i do expect this one to get back on course at some point but you guys know me im a big ethereum bull as well the main holdings that i have again are bitcoin ethereum link ada and dot and so i have these for very different reasons and i do think link will stand the test of time and it will have another nice nice move against ethereum at some point but right now ethereum is shining because this is the phase of a cycle when a theory intends to shine when bitcoins doing fairly well and then sort of is consolidating a little bit above the 20-day sma but prior to price discovery mode um you know if you look at the if you look at the link bitcoin valuation on a logarithmic scale im going to go back and put on our link bitcoin exponential fit bands you can see that we have gone off course from what we were able to realize for years and years and years i do not know if we will make it back to this band for us to get back to the bottom of the green band we would need to go to about a hundred and five thousand satoshis and its only going to get further and further away so wed be looking at a price approximately a 2x in the link valuation against bitcoin uh just to get to the bottom of the band it could be that this is is a a move into a different trends but we will provide updates on it just because it was our support for such a long period of time if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel lets go for 300 000 subscribers give the video a thumbs up remember we have the premium list at into the youll get access to the weekly reports and videos the telegram alerts channel the trading view indicators the telegram chat room the risk dashboard the into the cryptoverse app and more we have more coming in this in this quarter so make sure you guys check it out into the definitely subscribe to the channel click the bell icon to turn on your notifications thank you guys for tuning in and i will see you next time bye Can Chainlink go to $100 in 2021? In this video we break down many different models to discuss whether LINK can go to $100 in 2021, and discuss some of the market implications if it does. We look at the valuation of Chainlink against USD, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. While LINK/USD is currently in a bull market, we can see that the LINK/BTC and LINK/ETH valuations have been bleeding for the last half-year or so. Diminished Bitcoin volatility is needed for a LINK/BTC surge which will hopefully occur later this year. Once that happens, we will look to see if LINK can make that explosive move to $100. Where do you think the price of LINK is headed? Let me know in the comments!Premium List: LIFETIME OPTION: Alternative Option: Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice. Telegram: Twitter: Discord: Facebook: Reddit: Website: